Monday, August 20, 2012

Rollforming Future Australian Predictions.

Rollforming Future of the Nearly Big 5.

A short prediction of this coming FY2012/2013 results plus some changes along the way!
Only dealing with the BIG 5 makes it simpler - but there are at least three others nipping at the heals of positions 4 & 5 (If they haven't past them already)!

Being part of the new BlueScope Australia New Zealand business unit that obviously didn't perform at all in the last three years in contributing to EBIT - Lysaght has not made inroads to its market share of the construction industry for 10 years or so! Yet has the advantage of inside knowledge of most pricing knowledge in the tender process! Also BSL despatch has been declining since 2008?
BSL total Australian External Despatch
Overall - with the new business units, the smaller Australian units will be ignored or will be treated externally as discussed in the Full Year Results Presentation below:
  • Improve profitability in manufacturing and distribution.
  • Pursue structural cost reduction opportunities in raw materials for Port Kembla!
Prediction: Lysaght by 2013 July will be a very different animal and mainly service only large volume clients (at any price) to continue to exist until the building and construction industry revives at 2014! Big staff and store cuts ahead - Shareholders now hold BlueScope board on a knifes edge and they (the board) will be cut throat in dealing with Lysaght!

As part of Fletcher Building - the FY2012 report is not due until 22nd August 2012! But amazingly FBU shares on the ASX have been rising steadily up to $5.08 today. Stramit concentrates solely on its rollforming and fabrication sections with some quiet achievers in the concealed roof area and the mining sector. The FY2012 results I predict will be favourable to FBU with Stramit not having performed as well as in the past but becoming one of the main players in this industry.
Prediction: No change in Stramit predicted this year - just aggressive production, marketing and hard work!

A lone independent rapidly developing its retail sector - but still involved along the lines of Stramit with good production, product and service! While Stratco may be associated with rollforming - the big interest is whether or not they may split and sell off the retail arm to Masters or Bunnings (get rid of the competition)!
As an example of this retail expansion is the new retail Red Box in QLD at Virginia:

Virginia Stratco
Stratco will be near to separating their two entities of rollforming and retail! Lots of money involved in this deal! Stratco roofing is a chance for a sale to an interested third party in Australia. Prediction is that change is on the cards here.

What a hard company (if you could call them that) to investigate, a group of separate yet united and controlled bunch of rollformers that do not operate on a national corporate basis. But yet appear to be a national giant.  The website, marketing etc is well down the scale - yet the others always complain about them! Good or Bad? Maybe just they know the right buttons to push! Nothing will happen here in the coming years - NOTHING! And nobody will know how they operate, except that they cause grief through production, marketing and penetration in competing with the rest. They will always have this semi corporate look to hang around position 4 or 5! Prediction: No change!

Well, what a story - an ionic Company now operating under HILL Holdings - and a reasonable FY2012 result! But the big contributors were the Electronics and Communications (8.7%) and Life Style and Sustainability (7.6%). The % figures are operating profit to sales! We come to the Building division of Orrcon, Fielders and Korvest, which had a 0.8% result! Korvest posted a great result, Orrocon was average - so Fielders was the non performer maybe!
Prediction - big changes for the senior Fielders management in Adelaide, Big changes for Fielders (being sold out cheap). Hills made a mistake buying 100% of the company and leaving the ex shareholders free (no trade restrictions at all)  to compete against them and also impact on the last two years in WA and SA results. This was a bad decision by Hills board (one that will haunt them for years to come) that should be explained to shareholders. No good news for Fielders at all apart from their one new product called Aramax! Probably worth more than the rest of Fielders!

The others like Apex, Steeline, revolution and many other independents are all creeping up the ladder with superior service, production and attitude! More news soon on Stramit!



  1. I watched 'HOWZAT' last night on Ch 9, I don't think Kerry Packer would have put up with the
    plummeting values of the Hills and Bluescope shares !
    I agree Roofer, the Boards and the Management should be forced to explain their mistakes that have caused shareholders to lose their life savings.
    The 3rd umpire says 'OUT' !!

  2. LOL! Chappelli - good analogy!

    But Kerry wouldn't have made those mistakes initially if running BSL or HIL!

    But as a shareholder - even the BSL board would be replaced this November through a second strike! But what of Hills Holdings - I don't think shareholders can get 25% for a first strike - but they can vote with their shares (by selling) until the management take responsibility of "WTF" decisions regarding Fielders (and a few others)!

    I agree - heads should roll - the shareholders have their retirement life saving tied up in these dud performers! (and lost heaps)!

  3. How do you create a small fortune?

    Leave the Hills board in charge of a big one !

  4. I predict this to be the year that Fletchers buy Fielders from Hills at a handy price. Fletchers then re-brand Stramit in the west and south fielders and shut down fielders in the east and then move into number 1 in the country....

    Bit different from roofers no movement prediction from stramit, will have to wait and see as to who is right

  5. I agree with Tinman, unless Bluescope step in and a bidding war starts. Fielders will not be part of Hills soon.

    1. Fielders leaving the Hills group is the best result for the company, nothing but downhill since the take over

    2. lol BlueScope cant run what they already have and you expect them to buy Fielders?! Tinman might be right but it would be a case of dejavu for both Fielders and Fletchers hopefully more successful this time around?
      Credit to Fielders they have been trying to develop new products to make themselves more attractive to prospective buyers - but now that Stratco could be on the market will be interesting on who FBU acquire... as always will believe all the hype after the deal is done.

  6. SW, KC & Tinman:

    BlueScope tried to buy Fielders outright in 2008 $140 million
    Fletchers Tried to by them shortly after that for $109 million

    I don't think either of them will revisit this again! Hills have to put it on the market if they want to sell! The buyer could well be someone from left field!

    Hills would be a very different company today if they had sold in 2008!

  7. fletchers will get it for half that now roofer and i believe the ceiling is higher now for fielers than in 2008

  8. and an indian will buy bluescope...

  9. Big news @ fielders today

    1. Pushed or jumped?

    2. Mr. Middleton ?????? You sure of this????

    3. Twartz or Middleton ?

    4. middleton and im 100% sure

      jury out but i suspect keith knows something most don't IE the deal is nearly done. That and he doesn't get along with mckinstry

    5. Fletcher Bluescope or CSR?

    6. Keith wanted new opportunities and not to be hamstrung by Hills, of late I have never seen a CEO given less power to run there business, everything he did had to be approved by the Hills COO.

      Whats the point in being the CEO when you have no power to make descisions

  10. Westfarmers ??????

  11. To know more about Metroll, you need to start at the top.
    Manu Chandaria.